This Week In Stocks And The Economy

Published Sunday, November 29, -0001 at: 7:00 PM LMT

After the recent stock market volatility, some observers raised fears a recession may be on the way.

The stock market is a leading indicator for the economy and the economic expansion is indeed the second longest in modern U.S. history.

So, it's perhaps not surprising major media outlets ran headlines like these following the two-day plunge of October 10 and 11.

Was the drop in stock prices a precursor to a recession?

It doesn't look that way from data released this past week showing how the U.S. index of leading economic indicators (LEI) continued its surge into record territory.

The LEI is tracked by a private business group and is comprised of 10 components measuring the current economic outlook. This index has a long history and collapsed months before every recession in the post-War era. With the momentum it's showing, it's hard to see how the economy can suddenly nosedive.

Conference Board economists upped their forecast for growth of the U.S. economy, raising its August projected growth rate in gross domestic product of 3% to 3.5% in September — a large adjustment in expectations.

Meanwhile, job openings again hit a new record, according to the latest release from the Department of Labor.

Making the record job openings data extraordinarily unusual is that higher wages have not caused a surge in inflation. To be clear, record job openings logically imply that finding workers is growing more difficult and forces wages higher. Wages historically were the main cause of inflation in the U.S., so this is something to watch.

As previously reported, however, an increase in productivity masked wage gains in the second quarter of 2018. The productivity surge last quarter has not received wide media coverage, but labor costs actually declined by 1%, even as employee wages grew, according to the most recent government data.

The U.S. index of leading economic indicators (LEI) continued its surge into record territory this past week and share prices in stocks were little changed for the week.

The S&P 500 closed on Friday at 2767.78, less than 6% off its all-time high, settling last week after a plunge a week earlier.


This article was written by a veteran financial journalist based on data compiled and analyzed by independent economist, Fritz Meyer. While these are sources we believe to be reliable, the information is not intended to be used as financial or tax advice without consulting a professional about your personal situation. Tax laws are subject to change. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Investments with higher return potential carry greater risk for loss. Past performance is not an indicator of your future results.

This article was written by a professional financial journalist for Advisor Products and is not intended as legal or investment advice.

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Company Info

35 Pinelawn Rd., Suite 101E
Melville, NY 11747
631.454.2000

805 Third Avenue
18th Floor
New York, New York 10022
212.371.3950

Our Disclosure

Wealth Advisory solutions provided by subsidiaries of Percheron Asset Management Group, Inc.: Herold Advisors Inc. and Lantern Wealth Advisors, LLC., SEC registered investment advisors. Securities offered through Herold & Lantern Investments Inc., a registered broker dealer, Member FINRA, MSRB, SIPC.

Bernard Herold & Co., Inc.
Rule 606(a)1 Reporting Public Disclosure

 

This website uses cookies for navigation, content delivery and other functions. By using our website you agree that we can place cookies on your device. I understand

Welcome!

Welcome to Herold & Lantern Investments, Inc., and our new web site! We invite you to take a look around.

Bernard Herold & Co., Inc., and Lantern Investments, Inc., both family-owned firms with decades of experience, have merged to become Herold & Lantern Investments, Inc.  What that means to our existing clients is simple: stabilityand opportunity.  Clients keep their account numbers, and the same talented professionals will continue to serve them. Plus, with significantly enhanced and technology driven capabilities, our already excellent level of customer service will be even better. Read more about the merger.

As you navigate the site you will see the scope and range of our services. We hope you will get to know more about the firm, and its leadership. One thing you can be assured of is that we remain committed to responsiveness. Clients can always reach their investment professionals, or either of us, directly.

If you are an investment professional interested in learning more about our firm, our plans for growth, and the opportunities we offer, let us hear from you. Your passion for financial services, and sincere desire to help your clients reach their goals, means that we should talk.

We have many people to thank for helping us reach this new milestone, but our success has, and always will, come from the trust our clients put in us – a trust we strive to earn every day.

 

With sincere appreciation,

 

Keith lanton
President

Larry Herold
Chief Operating Officer